Vital Signs of Democracy Scan Results – September 15-30, 2024

Current Threat Level: Very High Threat Level 7

Summary

The threat level rating for September 15-30, 2024 remained the same at a Very High Threat Level 7.  What kept the threat rating at this elevated level was very high threat ratings in the Voting and the Election, Our Justice Department and America’s Role in the World news categories.

Voting and the Election was impacted by voter suppression and false certification efforts by MAGA Republicans in the battleground states, Our Justice System by further revelations that the MAGA justices on the Supreme Court have gone all in on protecting Trump, and America’s Role in the World by the escalation by the Israelis and Iranians in the Middle East crisis.

In some ways all three of these categories may impact the 2024 election. Voting suppression and false verification efforts are obvious, if the election results go to the Supreme Court to decide we think we have pretty good indications how that will go and the war that began in Gaza now spreading to Lebanon and Iran could be an October surprise that would impact the Harris campaign.

We have noted in the last couple of scan summaries that our original mission to raise an alarm among Americans about the threats to democracy the 2024 election posed is complete. Everyone who cares is sufficiently alarmed at this point. As we head into October the most obvious narrative we are concerned about is HOW Americans will make their choice in November. Another way of saying it is… what is the quality of the information that they will base their decisions on. On that front the news is not good based on our current cnarrative analysis.

When you have one party promoting an alternative reality about the state of the economy, the status of women’s rights, the latest on immigration issues and the level of violent crime in the US how are voters supposed to ferret out what’s true. Particularly, when you have a MAGA news ecosystem repeating these lies 24/7 to 40% of US voters. While it is normal in a political campaign for candidates to “stretch” the truth about their accomplishments and the failures of their opponents, the level of lying in this campaign is unprecedented. If you need proof just look at the VP debate. J.D Vance did a masterful job of making the MAGA lies seem like they could be true or at least not threating. And Walz countered with facts about Democrat policies while looking scared. So, there was that, but what I want to point to here is… it’s not just what is being said, but by the way it is being covered by the media.

The ”news” environment in 2024 is already severely polarized and biased. Fox continues to promote an alternative history as it relates to Trumps actions and blasts the Harris campaigns with “facts” that are not true. Haitians eating pets in Ohio comes to mind. Or the economy is crashing, or the level of violence in the US is at epic proportions. All of these are the opposite of what is true. The economy is improving, the level of violence in the US is down 24% in 2023, and there are NOT thousands of killer illegal immigrants roaming our neighborhoods. Our narrative analysis showed us Harris did a decent job of calling out Trump on his lies from the very beginning of their debate. Why Walz did not is do this in his debate with Vance is a mystery.

And then there is the media. One question that we have asked since we began this work is what the pro-democracy media would do IF the election was slipping towards Trump. Would they just report on the demise of democracy in America as business as usual or would they change their coverage to counter the Fox News narratives.

Certain commentators in the pro-democracy media have increased their warnings about the outcome of a Trump victory to an audience that is already anti-Trump. However, too often during those endless panels of pundits both sides talk about this election as if the two parties are debating from the same set of facts. Even when MAGA pundits attempt to spin Trumps increasing instability, the moderators allow one or two comments from pro-democracy pundits to remind viewers that MAGA statements are increasingly untrue, but then quickly move on.

Even the mild mannered NPR coverage of the VP debate, featured three pundits in their opening remarks noting that Vance was very smooth in his delivery and Walz seemed uncomfortable. Not one of them mentioned that Vance was lying during the entire debate. (They did mention it later) And Vance’s one departure from his “reasonable” tone was when he was fact checked by moderators for continuing to lie about the Haitians in Ohio.

The word “normalized” has been used to describe the current state of our news. That MAGA lies and disinformation and ineffective Democrat responses are normal. They are NOT. Maybe it doesn’t make any difference at this point because voters have already made up their minds, but when we look back on whatever the results are in November, we predict the quality of the information voters depended on to make their decision will be severely wanting. And that may represent the state of news in America going forward unless we start regulating cable news channels and social media platforms concerning the accuracy of their reporting like we did in the past with newspapers. However, that would require a change of business plan for all involved. It’s not likely that even Democrats would push for that.

The Polls

One last comment on the current state of the 2024 campaign as we head into October. You can’t open your news browser these days without seeing a new poll predicting something about the state of the two candidates. Our narrative analysis reminds us that it is important to keep in mind that the state of the “news” is PROFIT driven. The poll with the biggest audience makes the most money from advertisers or subscriptions.

Whether it’s the lead-in headlines on cable news or the latest “breaking stories” on our web browsers, the ”click bait” mentality of teasing out poll results that will alarm one audience or the other is increasingly the practice. The “pollsters” all want their polls to be considered the definitive source so that their brand is promoted on television while driving traffic to their advertiser sponsored websites. Even polls from non-profit organizations still must be popular for them to receive grant money.

They have no interest in a poll that says one candidate or the other is winning by a wide margin. Their interest is beat served by saying its close, but check back in 5 minutes for the next result. Our narrative analysis is not telling us that most of the pollsters are intentionally lying or skewing  the results on purpose, just that it benefits their audience numbers to keep saying it’s a tossup. It also benefits both political parties in their fund raising. So, again the quality of the information we voters will base our decisions on in November is less than ideal. And in a time when our democracy is seemingly threatened is a dangerous situation.

Other News Narratives We are Highlighting from September 15-30, 2024

• Poll Shows Further Decline in Americans’ Confidence in Election Integrity

• Ohio sheriff suggests residents keep a list of homes with Harris yard signs

• Amber Thurman 'left to die” after abortion complication

• Trump hit with new evidence from Jack Smith in Federal Jan. 6 case

• Judge to finally approve auctions liquidating Alex Jones’ Infowars to help pay Sandy Hook families

• ‘Nowhere is safe’: shattered Asheville NC shows stunning reach of climate crisis

• Chevron CEO hits Biden's natural gas policies, says fuel is crucial for AI

• Ohio GOP Gov. DeWine says ‘at least 33’ bomb threats because of false Haitian narratives prompt Springfield to begin daily school sweeps

• Iran launches missile attack on Israel for killing of Hezbollah leader